more electability
William Saletan looks at the exit polls to analyze Kerry & the "all important" electability question:
The major points: Kerry rarely wins among people who vote for a candidate because "he agrees with you on the major issues" and does relatively poorly among independents and moderate republicans. Oh, Bush is back to winning the "if the election were held today" poll [usatoday].
</samp>The best way to filter out this distortion is to focus on the voters least likely to make their decisions in November based on electability. These happen to be the same voters who hold the balance of power in most elections: independents, conservative Democrats, and moderate Republicans. They aren't principally trying to figure out which Democratic candidate can beat Bush, because they don't necessarily want the Democratic nominee to beat Bush. They're trying to decide which Democratic candidate, if any, would be a better president than Bush. [slate]</samp>
The major points: Kerry rarely wins among people who vote for a candidate because "he agrees with you on the major issues" and does relatively poorly among independents and moderate republicans. Oh, Bush is back to winning the "if the election were held today" poll [usatoday].
i have one more objection saletan didn't think of - these are democratic primaries/caucuses. even though most states are registering record turnouts, it's still a fraction of the registered dems (only 1/4 in iowa, for example). independents and republicans aren't going to care as much about showing up to vote for the democratic party nominee. only the hardcore members of either party historically show up for these events.
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