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the only earth?

more electability

William Saletan looks at the exit polls to analyze Kerry & the "all important" electability question:
</samp>The best way to filter out this distortion is to focus on the voters least likely to make their decisions in November based on electability. These happen to be the same voters who hold the balance of power in most elections: independents, conservative Democrats, and moderate Republicans. They aren't principally trying to figure out which Democratic candidate can beat Bush, because they don't necessarily want the Democratic nominee to beat Bush. They're trying to decide which Democratic candidate, if any, would be a better president than Bush. [slate]</samp>

The major points: Kerry rarely wins among people who vote for a candidate because "he agrees with you on the major issues" and does relatively poorly among independents and moderate republicans. Oh, Bush is back to winning the "if the election were held today" poll [usatoday].

Comments

as long as it remains a statostical dead heat through the nominating conventions, i'm happy. i'd love for kerry to be way ahead, but that's too much to ask. the dems are getting so much more media attention, the poll numbers are bound to reflect that. despite the fact that bush is a horrible president, most of the country doesn't see it.

i have one more objection saletan didn't think of - these are democratic primaries/caucuses. even though most states are registering record turnouts, it's still a fraction of the registered dems (only 1/4 in iowa, for example). independents and republicans aren't going to care as much about showing up to vote for the democratic party nominee. only the hardcore members of either party historically show up for these events.

Re:

Bush is having a really bad week. I think that the longer the nominating process goes, the better it is for Democrats, just because it keeps them in the news and people going to the primaries & caucuses.